[R.E.A.D] Forecasting and Timing Markets: A Quantitative Approach
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From the Author There is a general belief that no one can beat the market, due to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) �doctrine. However, the Omaha Oracle, Mr. Warren Buffet, has done�it, not occasionally, but consistently through many decades, as backtraced in detail by Robert Hagstrom in his book The Warren�Buffet Way,�3rd Edition, 2013. Howard Marks, in his Forward for the above book, summarized well about Warren Buffet's many attributes, such as being focused, disciplined, purposeful, hard-working, highly numerate and logical, a voracious collector of information, etc., with additional personal qualities such as super-smart, guided by an overarching philosophy, mentally flexible, �unemotional, counter-cyclical, having a long-term focus and being unconnected�with volatility, unafraid to bet big on his best ideas, willing to be inactive, not worried�about losing his job�and so on. He also pointed out that Buffet invests because he enjoys solving complex intellectual problems, not to gain fame or make money, with the latter things being only the by-product of his efforts, not his goal.��Yes - we all agree with Mr. Buffet's exceptional performance in his career as an investor. However, it's obvious that we may not be able to go back in time, start over and invest like Warren Buffet. Or even if we could go back in time, we may not possess so many same attributes that Mr. Buffet does. Or even if we reduce the required attributes to the three most basic ones like discipline, patience, and instinct, many of us may even not have all those three attributes. Still, is there a chance for us to succeed? The author thought about this question hard and worked hard, and the final answer is that we only need one attribute: discipline, as instinct is subjective and patience is irrelevant if one strictly�follows buy/sell signals generated by machines. In fact, machines�possess all attributes that Mr. Buffet has if they were equipped so. This book is dedicated�to explaining how we can act upon�buy/sell signals generated by quantitative models and strategies implemented as algorithms and executed by machines in real-time. The back-test results show that we can beat the market if we let machines select stronger 'lions and tigers' stocks AND avoid weaker 'cats and dogs' stocks, in conjunction with�proven models and strategies. Given enough said, I leave it up to you to check it out if you are interested further. Read more About the Author HENRY H. LIU, Ph.D., was once a physicist. Through his theoretical research and modeling on projecting trajectories of charged particles traveling at nearly the speed of light, he made unique, crucial contributions to several large-scale scientific research facilities in the national labs of China, France, Germany, and the United States. Later he jumped to computers and focused on software systems performance optimization, benchmarking and sizing. His highly acclaimed text, Software Performance and Scalability: A Quantitative Approach, has been in use for educating CS students worldwide. In more recent years, as the iPhone traffic forecaster as well as lead iOS systems performance and capacity planning engineer, he applied his past scientific predictive modeling experience as well as his extensive systems performance and capacity planning experience to helping forecast yearly iPhone launch events and get better prepared for dealing with high peak traffic. With this job, while delivering the highest degree of customer satisfaction with his fellow teams, he has consistently achieved high forecasting precision for iPhone launch unusually high-volume peak traffic, e.g., around 90% average forecasting accuracy for the latest iPhone 11 launch. His quantitative, methodical, profile and model-based approach has been proven to be widely applicable to forecasting and timing any events of time-series nature. Read more
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